5 Car Brands That May Struggle Meeting the New EPA Emissions Standards

The EPA has proposed plans for issuing far more stringent vehicle emissions standards. If approved as constituted, the new regulations will phase in between 2027 and 2032. And to meet them, it’s expected that car manufacturers will need about two-thirds of their sales to be battery-electric vehicles by 2032.

Meeting those standards will require a massive shift from manufacturers and consumers. But it’s a shift that’s essentially already underway and will impact some manufacturers far more than others.

Here’s what you need to know.

Ford

The shift to EVs is already in progress

Only 5.6% of new vehicles registered in America were EVs last year. Getting to 67% sounds daunting. But those numbers don’t present the entire context. EV uptake is growing dramatically. New EV registrations increased by 57% in 2022 — when overall market registrations dipped by 11%.

That growth is happening while major limiting factors exist on buying an EV. EVs still price out most buyers. The infrastructure supporting EV usage is improving but not where it needs to be. And the EVs people would want to buy either don’t really exist yet (family-sized three-row SUV) or involve getting on an interminable waiting list (EV pickups). Actual demand is likely much higher than 5.6%. Nine years is a long time for demand to grow and drawbacks to be resolved.

Ford

Most manufacturers have been preparing for this EV shift already

The automotive climate was already going to look very different in 2032. Most luxury manufacturers plan to be at or near 100% EV by 2030. General Motors — planning to be 100% EV by 2035 — should be well north of 67%. Even gas-swilling brands like Jeep are targeting 50% of sales to be all-electric by 2030. So getting to 67% of sales will not be as daunting as it seems and may be more conservative than manufacturers’ plans.

But some manufacturers still have a lot of work to do to get to 67%

toyota

Toyota

Toyota has been perhaps the most skeptical brand about EVs while leaning into hybrids and hydrogen. And while Toyota sold 1,453,028 cars in America in 2022. Only 1,220 of them (the bZ4X) were battery-electric — so tiny a fraction it’s not worth calculating. Toyota is scrambling to catch up. There’s a new EV platform coming in 2026. We may get a three-row SUV and an electric pickup truck before that. And Lexus is planning to be all-electric in North America by 2030. But taking high-volume, low-profit affordable vehicles like the Corolla fully electric will be a daunting challenge.

honda

Honda

Honda faces a similar change to Toyota. And one could argue they are even farther behind on EVs — at least in America. The first modern Honda and Acura EVs will not arrive until 2024. And those SUVs are going to be rebadged GM Ultium platform vehicles. It may be a few years after that before the first affordable and Honda-built electric vehicles arrive. And the conundrum of making cheap low-margin cars electric will be an even more pressing issue for Honda, who don’t have upmarket Lexus and high-margin body-on-frame Trucks/SUVs to lean on.

Stellantis

Stellantis

The former FCA brands have lagged behind GM and Ford, who already have compelling EVs on the road and are laying the groundwork for broader expansion. Stellantis has announced huge EV plans for the future with a 500-mile Ram REV pickup, a Fiat 500e and just about everything in between. But the current model lineup is still trying to wean itself off V8s to slightly more efficient six-cylinders. On the plus side, Stellantis should be able to port over a lot of EV tech from its European partners. But getting to 67% EV sales in the U.S. will require converting many skeptical Ram truck, Dodge muscle car and Jeep SUV owners.

Mazda

Mazda

Mazda does have the MX-30 EV, which is super low-range and basically a compliance car. The brand has announced a Sustainable Zoom-Zoom 2030 plan. And a new dedicated EV platform is purportedly en route for 2025. But Mazda is still planning to lean heavily on hybrids, estimating global EV sales will make up only 25-40% of its lineup by 2030. But taking a vehicle like the Miata electric will still pose a significant challenge.

Subaru

Subaru

Subaru’s biggest and most active shareholder is Toyota. So despite a crunchy, eco-friendly image, the brand has been hamstrung on EVs and hasn’t even received the best Toyota hybrid tech. The only EV released thus far is the Solterra — a rebadged bZ4X that makes for a fine Subaru but is crippled by low range. Getting electric takes on the Outback and Forester to market will need to be a major priority. And it sounds like Subaru is heading in that direction.

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